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FantasyPros analyst Derek Brown issued Week 4 start/sit advice for three Browns facing Pittsburgh: Deshaun Watson is a passable QB2, Denzel Boston has bounce-back appeal against a soft Steelers perimeter defense, and Quinshon Judkins profiles as an uninspiring volume-based flex.
Fantasy football analyst Derek Brown of FantasyPros released his Week 4 start/sit advice for three Cleveland Browns — quarterback Deshaun Watson, wide receiver Denzel Boston and running back Quinshon Judkins — ahead of their divisional matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The recommendations, published on FantasyPros in September 2026, are based on Brown’s advanced-stat review of each player’s first three weeks and Pittsburgh’s defensive splits.
Denzel Boston (WR – CLE) is coming off his weakest outing of the season, producing only 8.1 PPR points in Week 3 after, in Brown’s assessment, failing to overcome his quarterback’s struggles. For the season, Boston ranks as the overall WR19 in fantasy points per game, with an 18.1% target share, 2.27 yards per route run, three red zone targets, four deep targets and a 21.4% first-read share that ranks second on the team. Brown sees bounce-back potential because the Steelers have allowed the fourth-most yards per target and the fifth-most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers.
Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE) has been, in Brown’s words, an uninspiring volume-based flex play, ranking as the RB29 in fantasy points per game while averaging 17 touches and 59 total yards. Among 42 qualifying rushers, Judkins has the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, ranks 29th in yards after contact per attempt and 21st in missed tackle rate. Brown expects another quiet stat line against a Pittsburgh run defense that owns the tenth-best stuff rate, the seventh-lowest rushing success rate allowed and the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate.
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE) has finished as the QB21, QB12 and QB14 in weekly fantasy scoring through three weeks, adding modest rushing equity with eight rushing attempts and 35 yards per game on the ground. As a passer, his numbers remain concerning: among 31 qualifying passers, Watson has the second-lowest average depth of target, the 14th-lowest catchable target rate, the eighth-highest off-target rate and the fifth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. A matchup-based case exists, though — the Steelers have allowed the tenth-most yards per attempt, the 11th-highest passing success rate and the ninth-highest CPOE, leading Brown to call Watson a passable QB2 week candidate.
Why Week 4 Lineup Calls Hinge on Watson
For fantasy managers, all three recommendations point to a common variable: Cleveland’s quarterback play. Brown’s data shows Watson’s accuracy and depth-of-target issues directly limit Boston’s ceiling — 59.1% of Watson’s passing yards have come after the catch, the fourth-highest share among qualifiers, meaning receivers must generate their own production. Managers deciding between Boston and bench alternatives are effectively betting on whether Pittsburgh’s struggling perimeter coverage can rescue the connection.
The Judkins assessment matters for managers who drafted him expecting a larger role. His volume (17 touches per game) keeps him rosterable, but Brown’s efficiency data — bottom-ten explosive run rate and middling yards after contact — suggests that volume alone may not produce usable fantasy lines against elite run defenses like Pittsburgh’s.
Watson’s evaluation carries superflex and two-QB league implications. His weekly finishes of QB12 and QB14 in two of three weeks, combined with a favorable matchup, make him a viable spot start in deeper formats despite the underlying passing concerns.
How Each Brown Got Here
The advice comes as part of FantasyPros’ recurring weekly start/sit series, in which staff analysts evaluate polarizing players using advanced metrics such as target share, yards per route run, aDOT, CPOE and missed tackle rate. Brown’s Week 4 column follows three weeks of regular-season data.
Boston had been outperforming his quarterback’s limitations before Week 3, per Brown’s framing that he “finally wasn’t able to overcome his struggling quarterback.” Judkins, in his second NFL season after a college career at Ohio State, has held a lead-role workload in the Cleveland backfield. Watson, meanwhile, has produced inconsistent weekly results, mixing two top-15 positional finishes with one week outside the top 20. The Steelers game is Cleveland’s first divisional matchup of the season against a Pittsburgh defense with documented weaknesses against perimeter receivers and downfield passing but strengths against the run.
Where the Projections Could Miss
Brown’s analysis is predictive opinion grounded in statistics, not a guarantee of outcomes. Several factors could diverge from his outlook: game script could shift Judkins’ workload in either direction, Boston’s target quality depends on whether Watson delivers catchable passes — Brown notes this is not assured given the quarterback’s 14th-lowest catchable target rate — and Pittsburgh’s defensive splits are based on a small three-week sample. The article does not specify explicit start or sit verdicts for every league format, leaving managers in standard 12-team leagues to weigh the analysis against their own alternatives.
Browns-Steelers and Beyond
The Browns face the Steelers in Week 4, when Brown’s recommendations will be tested against actual results. Fantasy managers can cross-check the advice using FantasyPros’ Who Should I Start tool and consensus expert rankings. After Week 4, Cleveland’s schedule and Pittsburgh’s defensive numbers will continue to evolve, and FantasyPros will publish updated start/sit analysis for Week 5 based on new data.
Key Questions
Should I start Denzel Boston in Week 4?
Per Derek Brown’s analysis, Boston has bounce-back appeal because Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth-most yards per target and the fifth-most fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers. The risk is Watson’s accuracy, which produced only 8.1 PPR points for Boston in Week 3.
Is Quinshon Judkins a sit in Week 4?
Brown projects Judkins as an uninspiring flex play, citing his seventh-lowest explosive run rate among 42 qualifying rushers and a Steelers run defense ranking tenth-best in stuff rate. His 17 touches per game keep him in consideration, but the matchup is unfavorable.
Can Deshaun Watson be started in Week 4?
Brown calls Watson a passable QB2 option in superflex or two-QB leagues, pointing to Pittsburgh allowing the tenth-most yards per attempt. In one-QB leagues, his QB12-to-QB21 weekly range and poor accuracy metrics make him a riskier choice.
What is aDOT and why does it matter for Watson?
Average depth of target (aDOT) measures how far downfield a quarterback throws. Watson ranks second-lowest among 31 qualifying passers, meaning his passes are short, which limits fantasy upside and forces receivers to gain yards after the catch.
Source: google-trends
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